Labor is expected to further grow its numbers in the Senate, allowing it to pass legislation with only the support of the Greens in a power shift that could sideline previously influential crossbenchers such as David Pocock.
The Coalition’s election disaster looks likely to claim another casualty, with the Nationals deputy leader, Perin Davey, poised to lose her New South Wales Senate seat.
Despite the Greens losing two of their four seats in the lower house, party leader Adam Bandt said the Senate results should encourage Labor to pursue a bolder, more progressive policy agenda in its second term, including expanding Medicare, free childcare and banning new fossil fuel projects.
“It certainly sets us up well now for an era of progressive change in the parliament,” he said on Monday.
“The Greens are now in sole balance of power in the next parliament … We stand ready in the Senate to make this the most progressive parliament that Australia has seen.”
In the Senate, 40 seats were up for re-election: half the seats held by state senators, which have six-year terms, half of which come up for re-election each campaign; as well as the four seats for the ACT and Northern Territory, elected every term.
The final Senate results will not be known until at least next week, and polling experts cautioned that Senate results could continue bouncing around from current standings.
With counting still under way, Labor is projected to have at least 28 Senate seats in the next parliament, up from 24 at the end of the previous term. The Coalition is on 26 Senate seats, down from 30 at the end of the previous term.
The Greens appear certain to hold 11 seats in the next parliament, after all six senators up for re-election in 2025 held their ground.
One Nation’s Malcolm Roberts, Jacqui Lambie, and Liberal defectors David Van and Gerard Rennick were up for re-election in 2025; the terms of Pauline Hanson, Fatima Payman, Lidia Thorpe, Tammy Tyrrell and Ralph Babet continue, with those senators up for re-election in 2028.
Labor looks likely to pick up an extra senator in Queensland, and is also currently ahead in the race for the sixth spot in NSW, South Australia, Victoria and Western Australia.
Former Labor MP Michelle Ananda-Rajah, whose political career appeared finished after her seat of Higgins was abolished, is in a battle with One Nation and Legalise Cannabis’ Fiona Patten for the final spot in Victoria.
With 28 seats in the Senate, Labor would only require the Greens’ support to pass legislation that the Coalition opposes.
At the end of the previous parliament, Labor needed the support of the Greens and three crossbenchers to pass contentious bills. The Senate makeup handed crossbenchers, in particular Pocock and JLambie, casting votes over critical parts of Labor’s agenda.
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Lambie is in a fight to remain in parliament as she battles One Nation’s Lee Hanson – daughter of Pauline – for the final spot in Tasmania. One Nation is also in the mix for a final Senate seat in WA.
If the younger Hanson pulls off the boilover, and One Nation prevails in tight races, the rightwing party’s Senate representation could jump from its current two.
Pocock emphatically retained his seat in the ACT, even outpolling the finance minister, Katy Gallagher, an indication of his enormous popularity in the nation’s capital.
Labor’s new senators to join the parliament could include Emilija Beljic in NSW, Ananda-Rajah in Victoria, Corinne Mulholland in Queenland, Ellie Whiteaker and Deep Singh in WA and Richard Dowling in Tasmania. They may be joined by South Australian Labor candidate Charlotte Walker, who turned 21 on election night. Walker he is now leading the race for the sixth spot, and would be one of the youngest ever members of federal parliament.
Bandt, putting a positive spin on the Greens’ disappointing results in the House of Representatives, said the Senate result would allow Labor to pass legislation with just the support of his 11 senators. He noted the Greens had achieved a “record Senate vote” of about 14% and said Labor should aim for a more ambitious policy agenda.
“The only barrier to getting dental into Medicare now and passing it through the parliament is Labor. The only obstacle to making childcare free is Labor. The only obstacle to stopping new coal and gas mines from being opened is Labor,” he said.
In other results, Davey is expected to become the fourth member of Peter Dutton’s shadow cabinet to lose their seat, with a 10% swing against the Coalition in NSW likely to cost it a third Senate spot.
The shadow housing minister, Michael Sukkar, the shadow foreign affairs, David Coleman, and Dutton himself all lost their seats in Saturday’s landslide Labor win.
